Data Trends for Investment Professionals


The Breakout Stars of Black Friday 2019

2019’s Black Friday and Cyber Monday marked the biggest weekend ever in e-commerce [MarketWatch]. Thanks to near real-time updates from Quandl’s E-Commerce Intelligence (ECI) data product, we already have a first look at three of the stars who emerged during this year’s shopping bonanza. Read on to see:

  • How Turtle Beach may be on their way to another record-breaking year
  • How the near-3 year old Switch continues to fuel Nintendo’s success
  • How GoPro surged over the Black Friday 2019 weekend
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Using E-Commerce Intelligence to unwrap alpha in 2020

Everything we’re about to show you comes from ECI and aims to deliver early insights into big brands to position you for investing success. Let’s take a peek at some of the presents under the tree.

Turtle Beach’s never ending wave

In late 2017, a west coast gaming company tucked away in San Diego experienced an uptick in sales. On the heels of their Q3 2017 report [Turtle Beach], gaming peripheral company Turtle Beach surfed into 2018 watching their sales climb while their stock price rolled downwards.

Concurrently, the user base for a new game called Fortnite was growing exponentially. Surpassing 45 million registered users in January of 2018 [Statista], the free-to-play multiplayer game ascended into the pop culture lexicon. Gamers, professional and recreational, swarmed around the phenomenon…  igniting a boom for companies positioned in the gaming peripheral space.

After 6 months of rising headset sales and falling share prices, Turtle Beach experienced a turnaround. From April 2nd to June 29th, 2018, their stock rose from USD$2.36 to USD$20.32 per share. Building heavily on the popularity of Fortnite, Turtle Beach went on to report record quarters for the entirety of 2018 [Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4].

Turtle Beach share prices versus ECI from 2017 to 2018, with a notable gap between the two in early 2018
The gap between late-2017 sales and the mid-2018 stock spike presented an enormous opportunity for alpha if you could see the disparity.

Knowing the above, it’s even more impressive that Quandl’s ECI data for Black Friday 2019 shows Turtle Beach sales beating out 2018’s benchmark. In our previous post, we mentioned how Black Friday sales are a strong indicator of overall annual performance in the gaming market. To that degree, the data shows that Turtle Beach is still riding the Fortnite wave.

Turtle Beach ECI performance over the 2019 year, imposed over the same measurements from 2018
The Black Friday e-commerce data for Turtle Beach shows strong sales performance as the company rounds out 2019.

Nintendo has no need to Switch things up

Where Turtle Beach provides a great opportunity to backtest and eliminate noise using E-Commerce Intelligence, the latest data on Nintendo suggests a big year ahead for the household gaming name.

Preceding the Fortnite surge, the home gaming powerhouse released its latest console, the Switch, in March of 2017. Enjoying widespread commercial success, the remainder of the year was stacked with games from hallmark franchises such as Mario Kart, The Legend of Zelda, and Super Mario [Business Insider].

Within 10 months of launch, the Nintendo Switch had already outsold its predecessor, the Wii U, seizing the throne as the fastest-selling video game console in US history [Business Insider]. These sales remained steadfast into and throughout 2018 and, looking at the data through Black Friday 2019, we see that interest in the console hasn’t faltered.

Nintendo’s reported sales through ECI (over 2019) with a notable spike on Black Friday
Considering most of the big consoles see a lifecycle that peaks in its third year, Nintendo’s performance this holiday season is promising.

Reports are now showing that the Switch is poised to become Nintendo’s best selling console of all time [Techspot], beating out the watershed success of the Nintendo Entertainment System. This is important as we head into 2020 for two reasons:

  1. ECI data has shown that product-level sales of the Switch tend to correlate strongly with Nintendo’s overall performance throughout the year
  2. As the gaming industry migrates to more digital sales through e-retailers, ECI enables you to spot trends and shifts in performance more clearly
Click this image to download the full ECI report card
Nintendo’s sales through ECI have correlated well with overall performance in years past
With the Switch as Nintendo’s largest revenue driver, ECI-tracked sales offers a direct link to understanding the overall power of Nintendo throughout the year.

GoPro’s exceptional spike

Saving the best for last, it seems the real hero of Black Friday 2019 may be GoPro. Hot on the heels of their newly released HERO8 camera, the California-based company saw exceptional sales over the Black Friday/Cyber Monday 2019 rush. The data pulled from Quandl’s E-Commerce Intelligence shows the action camera brand clocking nearly double the e-retail purchases of the same period in 2018.

GoPro’s sales captured in ECI, with 2019 and 2018 imposed over the same time series
Compared to last year’s holiday season, GoPro put up serious numbers over 2019’s late-November shopping crunch.

However, when we look at the performance against GoPro’s share price over the past few weeks, we see a disparity. In contrasting the two, we see how ECI gives you up-to-date data on the brand to feed and inform your models more thoroughly.

GoPro’s year-to-date share prices, as provided by Google and Nasdaq
With GoPro share prices trending downwards, E-Commerce Intelligence provides you with sales data in near-real time to integrate into your models.

Unwrapping alpha in 2020

As we enter into 2020, the market will reveal how much the trends for these brands persist. However, if past cases are any indication, the ECI data on Black Friday 2019 is already revealing some remarkable insights – all of which can lead to success as you step into the new decade.

Getting started with E-Commerce Intelligence is easy. We’ve done all the legwork to ensure that you can seamlessly integrate the data with your workflow. To learn more and access this data on Quandl, get started with ECI today.

Click this image to download the full ECI report card
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