Data Trends for Investment Professionals

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Alternative data sheds light on Tesla’s mysterious delivery numbers

Tesla’s strong Q3 delivery numbers - more than doubling from the prior quarter - was good news for the company. But a new report on mysterious lots of Tesla vehicles appearing across America has fanned speculation that those numbers may not be what they seem. Quandl’s alternative data also indicates that there may be more than meets the eye. UPDATE (October 26, 2018): The Wall Street Journal is reporting that the FBI has stepped up a criminal investigation of whether Tesla is misstating production figures. On Tuesday, October 2, Tesla announced a doubling of deliveries in the third quarter to...

Tesla’s Model 3 Has Miles to Go

Manufacturing bottlenecks continue to plague the Tesla Model 3. In October, Tesla’s target of 5,000 car deliveries per week by Q4 2017 was pushed back to Q1 2018. Yesterday, Tesla pushed the target back again, to Q2 2018, after a disappointing quarter for production. Quandl clients had early warning of this shortfall thanks to our model-level insurance policy dataset. Read on for more details. Tesla Stuck in “Production Hell” A few years ago, CEO Elon Musk claimed that Tesla would deliver over 100,000 Model 3s in 2017. That aggressive goal was subsequently scaled back substantially, to a seemingly more achievable...

Alternative Data in Action: Iron Ore in a Meltdown?

China is both the world's largest producer and the world's largest importer of iron ore. This can result in some curious dynamics in the market, especially when China's internal supply and demand for iron ore become unbalanced.   Recent developments form an interesting case study. The Chinese government has been getting tougher on smog, and this means cutting steel production, which is a major source of pollutants. How will this affect global iron ore markets? Alternative data may hold the answer. Air Care The Chinese government has made it a policy priority to reduce the smog that envelops many of...

Going Once, Going Twice: Alternative Data Gives IronPlanet Acquisition Second Take

Ritchie Bros. Auctioneers (TSE:RBA) (NYSE:RBA), the world’s largest industrial auctioneer, released its first earnings announcement yesterday after its May 2017 acquisition of IronPlanet for USD 750m. The reported EPS of USD 0.33 and USD 166.19m revenue handily beat the consensus estimates of analysts polled by Thomson Reuters, which called for adjusted EPS of USD 0.31 on revenue of USD 163.4m. The stock has responded by rallying over 8% in next-day trading. We believe that analysts underestimated the results because they lacked insight into the boost in gross merchandise volume (GMV) that the IronPlanet acquisition provided. Ritchie Bros. has underperformed the...

Bollinger Band Breakout Augmented with Volume

This alternative data in action post looks at the power of currency volume data. CLS has just published the first true global foreign exchange (FX) volume database. Commercially available for the first time via Quandl, this database is the most accurate, most comprehensive and timeliest gauge of currency trading volume ever published. In this post, we present the results of augmenting a well-known FX trading strategy - Bollinger Band breakout - with data from our CLS Daily FX Volume database. This database, along with the CLS Hourly Volume database, offers access to the broadest set of executed trade data in...

How Email Receipts Predicted GoPro’s Q3 Earnings

The street got a big surprise last week when GoPro reported earnings. Shares dropped sharply in Friday morning trading after the company reported a loss of 60 cents per share on $240.56 million in revenue. Analyst expectations were much milder at a loss of 36 cents per share on $314.06 million in revenue. GoPro cited production issues as the cause for both the third quarter miss and the guidance for Q4. Prior to the earnings announcement, most pundits were bullish – or at least neutral –  on GoPro: see MarketWatch coverage, AmigoBulls, and this note from Raymond James. This is...

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